Most Hispanic Americans plan to vote Republican in the upcoming midterm elections, according to a new poll.
That Hispanics have swung anywhere near this far toward the GOP is a disaster for Democrats that was almost unimaginable even a year ago.
The Wall Street Journal poll of U.S. voters, published Friday, found Hispanics plan to vote for a Republican candidate over a Democrat in November by 9 percentage points — a stunning 53-point partisan shift since 2012.
- Here’s how the massive partisan swing happened, in three presidential elections.
2012: Hispanics voted for Democrat Barack Obama over Republican Mitt Romney by 44 points, according to an analysis of exit polls by the Pew Research Center.
- “The sleeping giant has awoken: Latinos not only helped Obama win in key battleground states, but they made up 10% of the electorate for the first time ever,” CNN trumpeted of America’s “fastest growing minority” after Obama won reelection.
2016: Hispanics voted for Democrat Hillary Clinton over Republican Donald Trump by 38 points, according to a Pew analysis.
- “Mr. Trump was supposed to be the bucket of cold water that aroused the sleeping giant, producing not only a stronger preference for the Democratic candidate but also, more important, a spike in turnout,” read a New York Times Opinion post-mortem on Clinton’s loss.
- “… [A]t first glance it appears Latino numbers were up, and perhaps significantly in some places, but that in fact the giant was barely stirred.”
2020: Hispanics voted for Democrat Joe Biden over Republican Donald Trump by 21 points, according to a Pew analysis.
- The Los Angeles Times later reported that “a significant number of Latino voters swung toward the GOP … For Democrats, that swing was deeply ominous: Their chance to hold on to power rests on the ability to keep together an alliance of white liberals and overwhelming majorities of Black, Latino and Asian voters …”
DEMOCRATS IN DISBELIEF
Despite the clear electoral trend, Democrats have struggled to accept the loss of the Hispanic vote they saw as their destiny for so long.
- “There was an initial tendency to say, ‘Oh, of course we lost Cubans in Florida,’ and ‘ the Rio Grande Valley, they’re all very conservative,’” Democratic consultant David Shor noted in an interview with Politico days after the 2020 election.
- “[But n]on-college educated white people have more culturally in common with working-class Black and working-class Hispanic voters. So, it should be unsurprising that as the cultural power of college-educated white people increases in the Democratic Party, non-white voters will move against us.”
If anything, the Hispanic political realignment has appeared to accelerate during Biden’s presidency.
- A poll by the Journal in November found Hispanic voters were evenly spit between Republicans and Democrats.
- Forty percent of Hispanic voters are bothered or offended by “Latinx,” the term for their demographic favored by progressives, according to another survey that month.
- And polling has consistently shown Biden’s approval rating falling even faster among Hispanics than among Americans overall.
Some on the left have started to blame Hispanics, rather than Democratic politics, for the trend.
- An Axios headline over the weekend blared: “The rise of white nationalist Hispanics.”